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9 October 2006

http://www.dni.gov/interviews/20061002_interview.pdf

Interview of Ambassador John D. Negroponte
Director of National Intelligence

With Mr. Gary Thomas of Voice of America

October 2, 2006

Transcript -- As Aired

Part I

MR. THOMAS: The United States' top intelligence official says that although the Islamic-based terrorist movement is growing, counter-terrorism efforts have kept the threat in check. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte says the recently revealed National Intelligence Estimate has been misunderstood. VOA correspondent Gary Thomas talked with the intelligence chief and has this report. In a rare interview, Director John Negroponte said the recently revealed National Intelligence Estimate has been mischaracterized.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: I think it's important to bear in mind that this is not a net assessment of how we're doing in the war on terror. I think some people have mistaken our description of the current state of the al-Qaida movement in the world with how we're doing against it, although we point out right in the first line of the report that they have suffered some serious setbacks in recent years.

MR. THOMAS: But, he adds, the estimate does conclude the jihadist movement, as it has come to be known, continues to grow.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: The judgment is that it is spreading. And the report talks about some of the factors that fuel the jihadist movement: grievances, poor governance, the situation in Iraq -- those are among the factors that are cited, and the fact that a movement that was concentrated perhaps in certain parts of the world before, like in Afghanistan, has now manifested itself in a number of different locations, in South Asia, in Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East.

MR. THOMAS: A National Intelligence Estimate, or N.I.E., is the highest collective judgment of the 16 agencies that make up the intelligence community on a given subject or area. News of the latest terrorism estimate was first leaked to some leading U.S. news organizations last month. Most stories zeroed in on the point that the war in Iraq has worsened the terrorist threat by giving al-Qaida a recruiting motive and an operational training ground. The estimate has become a political issue in a mid-term election year. After it appeared, President Bush ordered portions of it declassified. Director Negroponte said that was necessary to clear up what he said were misperceptions about it.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: Once parts of the report have been selectively leaked, for whatever purpose, political or otherwise, there are times, then, when we feel obliged in order to set the record straight for the American public to declassify more of the report for the benefit of the American people to judge for themselves.

MR. THOMAS: Progress in Iraq -- where Director Negroponte served as U.S. ambassador -- is mixed, the intelligence chief says.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: Certainly Iraq faces a very challenging and difficult situation. I think that there are probably areas of improvement and then there are areas of great difficulty.

MR. THOMAS: He acknowledges the alarming growth in sectarian violence between Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim militias as a significant threat to the fledgling Iraqi government.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: There has certainly been a rise in sectarian violence, of which we're all painfully aware, and that's been true since earlier this year. And I think it was sparked in part, certainly, by the bombing of a Shia mosque in Samarra, Iraq, on the 22nd of February.

MR. THOMAS: The spy chief says the success or failure of efforts to curb the violence in Baghdad will be key.

AMB.NEGROPONTE: But I think great efforts are being made to improve the situation.  And the focus of that effort is in the city of Baghdad, where a large measure of the violence does occur. And significant efforts are being undertaken by both the Iraqi government and its forces, as well as United States forces. And I think a lot hinges on the effectiveness of those efforts in the weeks and months ahead.

MR. THOMAS: He says work has begun on a separate National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq because there has been no N.I.E. on Iraq in about four years, which, if correct, would date back to before the 2003 U.S. invasion and the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Director Negroponte said the Iraq N.I.E. will not be finished for "some time," as he put it, but gave no timetable for its completion.

http://www.dni.gov/interviews/20061003_interview.pdf

Interview of Ambassador John D. Negroponte
Director of National Intelligence

With Mr. Gary Thomas of Voice of America

October 3, 2006

Transcript -- As Aired

Part II

MR. THOMAS: Speaking in his top floor office overlooking the Potomac River, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte says Iran is determined to get nuclear weapons and will have them soon if not deterred from its current course.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: We don't have any fast facts that could demonstrate to you a particular date by which we're certain Iran will have a nuclear weapon. But yes, it is our judgment, based on all the information available to us, that Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and, secondly, that they are on a path to achieve that within the next several years. The estimate that we have made is that somewhere between 2010 and 2015 is when we judge Iran is likely to have a nuclear weapon if it continues on its current course.

MR. THOMAS: The United States has been trying to round up support in the U.N. Security Council for sanctions on Iran. Parallel efforts are also underway for a diplomatic solution. The five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are offering incentives to get Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, a critical step to building nuclear weapons. Iran denies it seeks nuclear weapons, saying it only wants atomic energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has so far refused to halt enrichment, although Tehran has floated the idea of uranium enrichment by another country on Iran's behalf. Negroponte says that even though Iran does not yet have any nuclear weapons capability, evidence that it is moving in that direction is persuasive.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: You have to have insights into intention, you have to look at past behavior. I mean, among the factors we consider in the case of Iran is that in the past they've had a secret military program until it was revealed. We know that for 20 or 30 years Iran has been interested in acquiring nuclear capability. You can judge from their procurement practices. There's a whole variety of indicators that you can look at to get some sense of exactly what the intentions of a country are.

MR. THOMAS: However, Gary Sick, a former National Security Council staffer who worked under three presidents, says the hard intelligence on Iran's nuclear intentions is not yet there.

MR. SICK: If there was really hard evidence that Iran was building a nuclear weapon, I think that we would know about it for sure. I think there would be a lot of evidence from the I.A.E.A. (International Atomic Energy Agency). There would be specific evidence of specific sites that need to be visited, there would be photographic evidence, and the like. We don't have any of that. That doesn't prove that they're not building a weapon or that they would not in the fullness of time decide to do that. But I think that we are talking about intentions here. And I, for one, find it not easy to read Iran's intentions.

MR. THOMAS: Asked if the intelligence failure on Iraq complicates convincing people of Iran's intentions, Negroponte admits that people do raise that issue, but adds that the intelligence system is much improved.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: We have done quite a bit of work on "lessons learned" from the situation in Iraq, different mechanisms and procedures to improve the quality of our intelligence collection and analysis and our judgments. And, secondly, I think our principal partners and friends in the international community share with us exactly the same concern about Iran's intentions.

MR. THOMAS: Intelligence Director Negroponte says a diplomatic solution to the issue is still possible.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: This doesn't rule out the possibility that at some point in the current diplomatic context that Iran might decide to forego its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for some kind of accommodation with the United States, the Europeans, and other members of the United Nations Security Council and the international community.

MR. THOMAS: Gary Sick, who now teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, says the matter of Iran's nuclear intentions is not yet at the level of "crisis", as world media often label it. He describes it as a "problem", and one that is solvable if the United States and Iran would sit down for serious negotiations. But Washington says that without uranium enrichment suspension, there will be no direct U.S. participation in talks with Iran.

http://www.dni.gov/interviews/20061004_interview.pdf

Interview of Ambassador John D. Negroponte
Director of National Intelligence

With Mr. Gary Thomas, Voice of America

October 4, 2006

Transcript -- As Aired

Part III

MR. THOMAS: The top U.S. intelligence official says the government of Afghanistan must expand its authority over more of the country if the resurgence of the Taleban is to be checked. In a VOA interview, John Negroponte says the expanded NATO force is having a significant impact on the Taleban. VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports from Washington.

MR. THOMAS: In an interview in his Washington office, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte said the Afghan government must extend its authority beyond the capital Kabul in the face of Taleban resurgence.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: It's challenging. And one of the main issues for the government of Afghanistan is to extend its writ and its reach into the more remote, not only province capitals, but into the districts as well. But they're working on it. There are programs that exist that are trying to address that, and that's one of the things that they're going to have to work hard on going forward.

MR. THOMAS: The Taliban was ousted from power by Afghan opposition fighters and U.S. Special Forces in 2001 for giving safe haven to the al-Qaida terrorists who carried out the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York. But the Taleban is experiencing something of a resurgence, and attacks on coalition and Afghan forces have risen sharply in recent months. Negroponte says the Taliban is, like other terrorist groups, exploiting local grievances about issues such as corruption and poor governance to attract recruits. He also attributes the increase in attacks to a more aggressive posture by NATO forces, which have taken an increasingly direct role in fighting the insurgency based along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: I think that several things may explain the increased violence in southern Afghanistan, not the least of which that coalition forces and NATO forces have been taking a more proactive posture in that part of the country. And NATO forces have started going into areas that had previously not been touched by allied forces. So I think that one has to take that into account. And my understanding is that the Taleban have suffered some quite severe losses in those engagements. And it remains to be seen what the net outcome of all of that is.

MR. THOMAS: The new spate of attacks has also sparked another war, this one of words between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his Pakistani counterpart, Pervez Musharraf. President Karzai, who was in Washington recently, accuses President Musharraf of not cracking down on Taleban activity in and infiltration from Pakistan's largely lawless tribal areas on the border. President Musharraf, who was also in Washington at the same time, responds by saying the Taleban is an Afghan problem, not a Pakistani one. President Bush, who considers both Pakistan and Afghanistan key allies in combating terrorism, hosted both men at a White House dinner in an attempt to mend the rift between the two countries. Recent Pakistani military action to root out terrorists in the border area known as the Waziristan Agency was ineffectual, so the government recently signed a treaty with tribal leaders there to get them to stop the cross-border infiltration. Asked about the controversial treaty, Director Negroponte would not comment directly on the pact, but said it remains to be seen if it will accomplish its purpose.

AMB. NEGROPONTE: So I think, as they say, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, and we'll have to see how in actual fact this arrangement is implemented. But I think you're right to raise the issue, and it's certainly something that we among others, will be watching very carefully.

MR. THOMAS: However, Barnett Rubin of New York University, a former U.N. advisor in Afghanistan who is considered to be the foremost American academic expert on the country, says the treaty is already in trouble.

MR. RUBIN: The way President Musharraf describes the treaty - as a deal with (tribal) elders to get their political support against extremism - would be a very good idea which I would support if it were true. But if you have been following this for several months, as I have been, you know it was actually initiated by the Taleban themselves in order to get a safe haven, which they now have. And it is clear that since the treaty was signed they are not in any way observing the agreement not to engage in cross-border activities.

MR. THOMAS: On Wednesday, the Afghan intelligence agency announced it had arrested 17 aspiring suicide bombers who, it alleged, had trained in Pakistan.