18 June 2009

James Atkinson (www.tscm.com) sends:

This morning (June 17, 2009) the CDC released another Press Release in regards to the H1N1 Pandemic.

In the release dated this morning at:

http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/content/outbreak-notice/novel-h1n1-flu-global-situation.aspx

the CDC states, and I quote: "Overall, the numbers of new cases of novel H1N1 flu in Mexico and the United States appears to be declining. However, outbreaks continue to be reported in some communities."

The funny thing is, and you have to pay attention here. The CDC released statistics last Friday that reflects that the above statement is patently false, and that actually the number of cases in their press release data dated 6/12/2009 indeed shows the numbers are actually way up over the previous week. I would direct your attention to the following page:

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

and then direct your attention to the link at the bottom of the table that links back to previous week or days' statistics. If you lay this numbers out on a spreadsheet (attached) you find that the CDC press release is utterly false, and that the number continue to actually increase.

The numbers that I am talking about are the H1N1.06.17.2009.pdf [Cryptome copy] file at the bottom most series of numbers on the data intense spreadsheet (not the charts).

Last Friday the CDC (using numbers from Thursday) stated that there were 4,638 confirmed of probably new cases reported in the prior 7 days, or 663 new cases a day. While it was down a bit from the previous week the overall trend looking back over the past few weeks is actually upward, and not downward. The "velocity" of the propagation may be down for the week for whatever reasons, but the over all numbers, and trends continue to increase.

Also, the numbers being reported out of Mexico are way down, but the numbers in the United States are way, way up. By including Mexico in the press release it skews the nubers so that the overall trend appears lower then it actually is.

The trend for new day to day infections can be calculated from the following equation: y = -0.0002x4 + 0.0413x3 - 2.2513x2 + 56.134x - 161.11

The CDC has been playing this "Infections Appear to Be Decreasing" game now for several weeks in their press releases, when in fact the infections are increasing on a day to day and week to week basis.

There is also this little matter that some of the states and or counties in certain states are not providing local level infection data to the CDC, and thus those infections are not making it into the CDC numbers.

There is some seriously fuzzy math going on with the CDC reporting of these numbers.

Also, attached please find some CDC Briefing files, which includes an extremely revealing issue regarding Biosense on page 25 of the June 9th briefing where you can see that some states are not reporting data back to the CDC, and you can see the pattern of where there is non-reporting. Some states report on a state capital or state lab only basis, some on a hospital by hospital basis, some on a county basis, and some not at all.

http://www.cdc.gov/BioSense/>

Then on page 18 of the same document notice the return rates for being positive on H1N1, and notice that the percentage coming back positive for H1N1 is trending at 83% (which is way, way up).

The CDC is putting way too much fuzzy math on these statistics, and is issuing press releases that do not correlate to their own numbers. Add to that the data is not being reported to the public with sufficient "grain" or detail to be of analytical or preventive value to the general public, and that many of the states or hospitals are not using the BioSense system to do proper reporting back up to the CDC.

The problem that I have with all of this is that since the mortality rate for the H1N1 is low (for now), and the symptoms are very mild and mimicking seasonal allergies people are not getting tested, and some doctors are really slow to perform and kind of testing or culturing (or they do throat only cultures, and not throat and nose cultures, or sputum cultures). Then we have state agencies who only want to do testing on a regional basis themselves, and who will not reporting into BioSense what their findings are. H1N1 can twist virtually overnight and can go from a super low mortality rate like we have now to being extremely lethal (although with modern medicine we can blunt the lethality somewhat with anti-virals). Great care must be taken to track and analyze this virus in extreme detail as it moves through the populations because if it twists the consequences could be devastating, and fast.

I invite you to closely examine the attached files, seriously. Look at them, and then step back and look at them again. Then let me know if you have any questions, or feel free to point out any error or oversight that I am making.

H1N1.06.17.2009.pdf

us-cdc-swine-flu-5-jun-2009.pdf

us-cdc-swine-flu-9-jun-2009.pdf

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 James M. Atkinson                            Phone: (978) 546-3803
 Granite Island Group                        Fax:    (978) 546-9467
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 Gloucester, MA 01931-8008            E-mail: mailto:jmatk@tscm.com
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