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18 November 2007

A sends:

<http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119526852466996657.html>

The Wall Street Journal

COMMENTARY: THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW

Henry Kissinger
Diplomacy in the Post-9/11 Era

By DAVID B. RIVKIN JR.

November 17, 2007

"Whoever the next president is, the new administration will be extremely
disappointed if it believes that our relationships will mend because its
leader has a different name . . . . Personal diplomacy and
relationship-building, although important, are rarely the paramount drivers
of global affairs. These are shaped importantly by the long-term national
interest."

Thus spake Henry Kissinger when I sat down with him recently in New York.
Though I'd met him once or twice over the years, I had never seen him in
situ -- ensconced in his Park Avenue office. To be honest, I was expecting
gilded furniture and sumptuous carpets -- the kind of quarters Clemens von
Metternich, one of Mr. Kissinger's own diplomat heroes, had in Habsburg
Vienna.

I was, therefore, a little surprised to be ushered into a functional space
with nondescript appointments, including a 25-year-old Sony Trinitron
placed as if to emphasize he doesn't watch much TV. The man who negotiated
the United States out of Vietnam, took Nixon to China, and initiated
ditente with the Soviet Union, received me like the college professor he
once had been -- surrounded by his books and mementos.

It is, of course, a rare opportunity to speak with one of history's makers
and Mr. Kissinger remains one of the country's most prescient observers of
world affairs. I began by asking him about the institutional atmosphere in
Washington, the hothouse of American foreign policy. The capital is far
more poisonous today than at any time in the recent past, I suggested --
including Mr. Kissinger's heyday during the Vietnam War, when the early
Cold War-era comity between the political parties and the executive and
legislative branches was already degrading.

Mr. Kissinger leaned forward to answer my questions with studied
deliberation. In part, he felt that this was institutional. Congress has
itself changed. The "tradition of long-serving senior politicians from both
parties who were devoted to a truly national service has passed, or largely
so." The entire system, especially as it has been transformed by the
communications revolution, "is now much more driven by short-term political
calculations, the need to keep powerful and vocal constituencies happy, and
an eye on the next election." This effect, Mr. Kissinger posited, has been
enhanced by the 24-hour news cycle -- "more information, and less content."

But Mr. Kissinger also dismissed the idea that there was ever some golden
age for the domestic fundamentals of American foreign policy. With a wry
smile, and a clearly bemused eye, he noted that the 1960s and '70s -- when
he served as both national security adviser and secretary of state under
two presidents (holding both jobs during Nixon's second term) -- were not
"idyllic." "I thought," he said, "it was very rough."

The dominant theme of today's Washington battles is that most of America's
current problems are self-inflicted wounds attributable to overly muscular
and "unilateralist" Bush administration policies. Critics say that if only
the U.S. were less eager to impose its will on other countries, whether in
pursuit of traditional realpolitik goals or idealistic democracy-promotion,
we would encounter a great deal less hostility. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, one
of those critics and Mr. Kissinger's long-time intellectual sparring
partner, puts it in his recent book, what much of the world wants from the
U.S. is "respect" and recognition of its "dignity" defined as the ability
to manage their own affairs as they see fit.

Mr. Kissinger agreed with the point that other nations will have to have
scope to develop their own identities. But he pointed out that to have
world order, "these identities need to be reconciled into some general
consensus." An American strategy of benign neglect may, in any case, no
longer be realistic in an age of increasing global integration when
relatively small transnational networks or failed states can project power
against democratic societies with devastating consequences.

Meanwhile, most of today's international actors, "including states,
international organizations, and nongovernmental actors, are disenchanted
with different aspects of the existing world order." Unfortunately, Mr.
Kissinger noted, few of these actors are willing to play a constructive
long-term role, preferring merely to challenge American policies when they
involve risks.

So can our democracy effectively manage long-term foreign policy problems
in a world of varied belief systems in which the U.S. is invariably urged,
and sometimes required to deal with many imperfect, or even profoundly
unsavory, regimes?

"You know," Mr. Kissinger reminded me in an accent as unique and
recognizable in American history as Jack Kennedy's, "for somebody like me
who, in his youth, lived in a dictatorship, the virtues of democracy don't
have to be underlined." Of course, "the United States must operate in a
democratic manner, and our foreign policy must reflect and properly balance
both value and power considerations."

But, Mr. Kissinger noted, it is important to recall that the American
Republic was not originally designed to sustain an ability to pursue a
complex foreign policy. The Framers tended to assume that, once
independent, the U.S. could operate reasonably well in relative isolation.
These attitudes persist. As a result, Mr. Kissinger posits, Americans have
little patience "for a long time of foreign tension."

Because of this, "presidents tend to present difficult cases, particularly
those involving military engagements, to the American people in terms of a
finite timeline. As a result, they often end up implying, or promising,
achievements that may not be possible in the short term -- and that are by
no means guaranteed over the long term."

Foreign policy, he emphasized, "is not something easily put on the clock."
It must "not oscillate wildly between excesses of commitment and excesses
of withdrawal."

I glanced over his window sills, crammed with photographs of Mr. Kissinger
and the world's leaders, toward the Manhattan skyline and inquired about
the vitality of some of the key international institutions, and especially
the U.N. "The Security Council," he insisted, "must be reformed, since --
at the present time -- it does not represent the realities of the
international community because major countries like India, Japan, Germany
and Brazil are not included."

At the same time, he explained that this reform is unlikely, since it would
either involve expansion of the veto-wielding permanent membership --
rendering the Security Council even less capable of decisive action -- or
elimination of the veto.

"This would be unacceptable to the United States and the other four
permanent members," particularly in a world where the Council's actions,
whatever their merits, are imbued with a great deal of perceived
legitimacy. "But some change is necessary. The Council itself is breaking
down -- the interests of its permanent members are simply not sufficiently
parallel on a number of issues to permit a unanimous decision and the
Security Council can only reflect the attainable consensus. It cannot by
itself create it."

This led to discussion of whether international institution building,
accompanied by an all-out effort to restore the Cold War-era level of
trans-Atlantic comity within NATO, would be a good investment for the U.S.,
and especially whether this should be a priority for the next
administration. Mr. Kissinger was skeptical of the prospects for success.

He also emphasized some profound changes in today's geopolitical
environment. He pointed out that the world we have known for 300 years now
-- the "Westphalian" international system that arose after Europe's wars of
religion and is based on the nation-state -- is "collapsing." This may be a
much more profound shift than the move from dynastic to national
motivations following the 1814-15 Congress of Vienna (about which Mr.
Kissinger has written) and a more serious challenge to international
stability than that posed by states such as Nazi Germany or the Soviet
Union. The nation-state is weakening in Europe, he observed, and has met
with mixed success in other parts of the world. "Only in Russia, the United
States and Asia can it be found in its classic form."

Meanwhile, across the Middle East and southern Asia, although nationalism
remains a powerful force, many cast themselves as a part of a greater
Islamic community defined in opposition to the West. In Mr. Kissinger's
view, a single formula will no longer adequately describe this
international system.

This brought us inexorably back to America's most important relationship --
with most of the world's other democracies in Europe. Mr. Kissinger pointed
out that, in the immediate post-war period, "Europe was far weaker than
today, but still prepared -- with leaders like Adenauer, Schuman and
Monnet, to conduct a real and assertive foreign policy -- even if under the
American security blanket and with a modicum of trans-Atlantic discord."

But today, fundamental philosophical differences divide the U.S and Europe
across a range of key foreign policy issues. Europeans and Americans, I
suggested, disagree as to both means and ends -- especially the legitimacy
of the pre-emptive use of force without an explicit blessing from the
Security Council, as well as in their basic assessment of the gravity of
the threats posed by transnational terror networks, which cannot be either
bargained with or deterred.

The real difference, Mr. Kissinger interjected, lay in "what government[s]
can ask of their people." It is because "European governments are not able
any more to ask their people for great sacrifices," he argued, that they
have so readily opted for a "soft power" approach to so many foreign policy
issues. This will, of necessity, make it harder for Europe to reach a
consensus with the U.S.

This is exactly what makes dealing effectively with growing threats so
difficult. The question of how to deal with Iran and its nuclear ambitions
naturally comes to mind. There is no doubt that Iran's acquisition of
nuclear weapons would be an extremely destabilizing development and cannot
be tolerated by the U.S. Mr. Kissinger's view is that the U.S. must make a
serious effort with Iran. He said that negotiations could work in the right
circumstances and if there was enough determination behind them. "What you
mustn't do," he cautioned, "is to identify diplomacy with escalating
[Western] concessions." Right now we are "sliding into a position that we
neither negotiate enough nor put out enough red lines."

Mr. Kissinger added, however, that the use of force against Iran cannot be
ruled out. Diplomacy not backed by the potential use of force is impotent.
This was part of our problem in dealing with Iraq for many years.

When it comes to dealing with our European allies over the longer term,
there will continue to be some fundamental disagreements. But "to the
extent the problem is characterized by some of our allies as the management
of American power, then it is important neither to be immobilized because
of a fear of unilateral action, nor to attempt to create an international
system based upon it."

Here, Mr. Kissinger suggested that a useful lesson can be taken from 19th
century Britain -- act unilaterally when you must, but create a framework
in which other powers are reassured by an "understanding of predictable"
actions and an underlying agreement on objectives.

By the time I left Mr. Kissinger's office, I had a genuine feeling of
unease about the future. But had I raised this with Mr. Kissinger, I
suspect he would have simply said that this goes with the territory. Great
states have great responsibilities. They must expect great challenges, and
they must be prepared to meet them.

Mr. Rivkin, a lawyer based in Washington, served in the Justice Department
under Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush.