29 July 2003

Policy Analysis Market web site, now removed by DARPA, original (retrieved from Google cache) and revised, Zipped:

http://cryptome.org/pam-site.zip (460KB)

Full transcript: http://www.dod.mil/transcripts/2003/tr20030729-0465.html

Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 19:03:40 -0400
From: dltranscripts_sender@DTIC.MIL
Subject: DoD News Briefing Mr. Di Rita and Lt. Gen. Schwartz
To: DODTRANSCRIPTS-L@DTIC.MIL

NEWS TRANSCRIPT from the United States Department of Defense

DoD News Briefing

Lawrence Di Rita, Special Assistant to the SecDef

Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - 1:00 p.m. EDT

[Excerpt]

Q: Larry, the Defense Department today terminated the Policy Analysis Market after it had come under sharp criticism from some members of Congress. What were the reasons for terminating this program? And why did the Defense Advance Research Project Agency allow it to proceed as far as it did before it was dropped?

Di Rita: Well, you're right, the director of the DARPA has agreed to terminate the program. I would, I guess, just better refer you to him, and we can get some more information.

They've evaluated competing requirements for resources across a broad front of programs that they're looking at, programs that are in large part focused on counterterrorism activities, and the director has determined that this is a program that, under further scrutiny, probably doesn't deserve continued support.

Q: I have a follow-up on that, please. It just seems -- you know, I've been around this building 12 years. It seems so absurd that a program like this could ever see the light of day, from what we know about it. I mean, did it pass your muster? I mean, did it pass anybody's muster, any --

Di Rita: What I understand -- and I really don't think we'll have much more to say on this point because the program's been terminated. But what I do understand is whatever procedures are in place to evaluate these programs, as DARPA starts to look at whether or not it's the type of program worth supporting were followed.

But I just -- there's really -- I don't think I have much more to say on that.

Q: Well, we go back --

Q: Senator -- (inaudible) -- suggested that --

Q: -- we go back to John -- just one more follow-up. We go back to John Poindexter again, who apparently had his hand in this program, as he did in one often called, you know, "big brother" about the computerized thing. Is he still on the payroll?

Di Rita: At the moment, Admiral Poindexter continues to serve in DARPA. As you know, the Total Information Awareness Program, we've established a number of internal and external safeguards. We've briefed those extensively up on the Hill. We're going to continue to evaluate those kinds of programs with respect to the protections that are necessary as we conduct this kind of really cutting-edge research for counter-terrorist activities. But we have established an external review board for those kinds of things, and we'll continue to do that sort of thing.

Again, I just don't think I have a heck of a lot more to offer on this. So if you've got another subject, I'll take it.

. . .

Q: And a follow-up to what you said earlier, Larry --

Di Rita: Okay.

Q: -- talking about the DARPA program. It sort of slid under the radar there, but you mentioned "established an external review board." Was that established before this program, or --

Di Rita: I mean, it was several months ago now we established a board for the purposes of some of the research being done that people have concerns with regard to protecting personal information and those kinds of things.

It was established in view of the so-called Total Information Awareness Program.

So we've got -- I was kind of broadening out on the kind of -- some of the research being done is unusual, it's different, it's new, it's got -- there may be people who see this as cutting edge and maybe beyond certain limits that they're comfortable with. So, in order to make sure that we were always going to sort of do things in a way that everybody could be comfortable with, we asked a number of people with expertise in these issues to form this outside board. We announced that, gee, several months ago.

Q: And did this program pass through that external board?

Di Rita: Well, it wouldn't have necessarily. And I wasn't trying to make a direct connection.

Q: Oh.

Di Rita: I was only speaking to the -- I think somebody asked the question, "How could a program like this even see the light of day?" There's a lot of interesting, unusual and, in some cases, in this case, as it turned out, sort of not worthy research, but research that people at one point sort of thought let's think about this and let's decide if this is worth pursuing. In this case, the director of DARPA decided it was not worth pursuing.

But the fact is, because there's sensitivities out there on the kind -- on research that's new -- because we're in a new world -- we establish these protections. And as I said, we briefed these protections significantly.

Q: And was the decision made because of the public furor and congressional opposition, or because it was determined it was simply a bad idea?

Di Rita: I think I would just refer you to the man who made the decision, and we'll get some information for you on that point.

Q: Is that Admiral Poindexter?

Di Rita: No, no. The director of DARPA, who is a gentleman by the name of Dr. Tony Tether.

Q I thought you said "for the moment," Admiral Poindexter remains at DARPA. So there's no misunderstanding, is that moment going to continue?

Di Rita: I don't have anything to announce on that, I really don't.

Source: http://www.darpa.mil/body/NewsItems/pdf/FutureMappressrelease2.pdf

News Release

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
3701 North Fairfax Drive
Arlington, VA 22203-1714

“Providing technological innovation for national security for over 40 years.”

IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 29, 2003

FUTUREMAP PROGRAM CANCELED

The Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced today that DARPA’s participation in the Futures Markets Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP) program has been withdrawn. The related Small Business Innovative Research effort will be terminated for convenience, effective immediately.

FutureMAP was one of the sponsors of the Policy Analysis Market web site that has been the subject of recent news articles.

The FutureMAP research project was meant to explore the power of futures markets to predict and thereby prevent terrorist attacks. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions. The program was part of DARPA’s overall thrust to find new ways to thwart terrorism.

“FutureMAP was a small program that faced a number of daunting technical and market challenges”, such as Can the market survive and will people continue to participate when U.S. authorities use it to prevent terrorist attacks? Can futures markets be manipulated by adversaries?” the DARPA Director said. “Reconsidering those challenges in light of the recent concerns surrounding the program, it became clear that it simply did not make sense to continue our participation in this effort. Our job at DARPA is to explore new ideas and innovative research to enhance national security. The resources that would have been applied to this project will be applied to other more fruitful pursuits.”

DARPA believes it is important to continue funding research that examines how to better use advanced information technologies and processes as predictive tools for terrorist acts. The U.S. will need such advanced capabilities to solve the problems identified in the Congressional report on the 9-11 attacks.

-END-

Media with questions, please contact Jan Walker, (703) 696-2404, or jwalker@darpa.mil