13 July 2009

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cdc-flu-fuzz4.htm     CDC Fuzzes H1N1 Pandemic Reports 4               July 6, 2009
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cdc-flu-fuzz2.htm     CDC Fuzzes H1N1 Pandemic Reports 2               June 20, 2009
cdc-flu-fuzz.htm      CDC Fuzzes H1N1 Pandemic Reports                 June 18, 2009

James Atkinson (www.tscm.com) sends:

Here are the charts from last week regarding the H1N1 infections that is sweeping our nation.

http://cryptome.org/h1n1/H1N1-2009.07.10.2009b.pdf

There are several significant curiosities that can be derived from the raw number obtained from the CDC.

There is definitely some fuzzing of these numbers by the CDC. It could just be a delay in reporting the numbers, or a delay in testing, but there is definitely something odd going on.

The first, and perhaps most important, is that the CDC is telling the pubic one set of numbers, but the WHO is publishing a different set of numbers. The difference appears to be about a 5 week lag behind in reporting numbers. Either the CDC is delaying the confirmation of the virus in patients, or states are reporting numbers late, or the CDC is just pulling number out of thin air.

Notice that the number of people tested in early May were huge (30k in one week, 27.4k+ in the next week), with a positive return rate of under 10%. But then the testing radically decreases the following week, and for every week afterwards, but the rate of positive returns skyrocketed. If we did 30,000 tests in one week, then why so few now, when the death rate has become so high?

The number of people confirmed with H1N1 is continuing to climb ever upwards, and something is very fishy about the numbers that the CDC is publishing, and even more fishy about the numbers that the WHO is reporting back to the CDC.

The number of U.S. deaths continue to climb, and in the past two weeks there have been several confirmed cases (by the CDC), and cases in Asia (infected U.S. Citizen who got stopped from entering a Asian country due to their being sick on arrival at airport) of H1N1 Variants that are not responding at all to any of the top three anti-virals.

The troublesome bit is also that the number of tests being performed is way down, but the number of infections being reported is way up, and of those tested the percent coming back positive are extremely high. There needs to be much more aggressive testing, and each week the CDC should be (right now) processing in at least 50,000 samples per week, or sufficient samples to maintain a stable number of tests relative to the prior weeks number of new infections.

The samples tested for one week should include a large enough number of sample to be ten to twelve times the number of people confirmed to be infected in the previously week. The goal is not to dilute the number of positive responses, but rather to detect the movement of the virus within the population while it can still be maintained.

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James M. Atkinson Phone: (978) 546-3803
Granite Island Group Fax: (978) 546-9467
127 Eastern Avenue #291 Web: http://www.tscm.com/
Gloucester, MA 01931-8008 E-mail: mailto:jmatk[at]tscm.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesmatkinson

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